Good pick Rory. Don't know if I'd call it a "bounceback" game after Auburn lost three straight. Though, they did finally rebound from the schneide... last year they never did.
Odd, after Auburn beat West Virginia I said West Virginia could win the Big East. I then said well I guess that means Auburn is pretty good. However, I've since determined they are just good, which doesn't cut it in the SEC West this year.
They remind me of the Dolphins except a college version. Talented starting 11 on defense but no bench (check). A wide variety of offensive weapons including a bench quarterback who basically goes into shotgun and runs (check, check). A starting quarterback that is more Trent Dilfer than Tim Tebow (check). Gimmicky offense which can put good defenses on their heels (check) but should they give up an early lead to a good team pretty much toast (check).
See that last sentence... why I'm scared to pick against or for Auburn or the Phins this year. So good job Rory they are a tough team to sports betting handicap. LSU trashed Auburn but a point I tried to get across to Ryan, with little success, was that had those four early calls been called right, they would have at least have had a chance in that game. Yes, they likely still would have lost, but they'd have a fighting chance. LSU extended the lead and the minimum 10 point swing the refs gave them, and it was over. Once their playbook is limited due to having to come back and needing to rely on the passing game, they are done. Same with Miami.
I've gotten into some pretty healthy debates about the dolphins where people dismiss their offense as a gimmick. Some guys told me the wildcat did nothing against the Saints, the dolphins only gained x amount of yards in that formation, which is garbage. The threat of the wildcat makes other formations more successful. The Saints didn't know what the Dolphins were running until they broke formation.
The Dolphins rolled against the Saints when they were able to use every page in their playbook, when Tony Saprano got away from the Wildcat and stopped balancing their attack their offense struggled. Look, Jonathan Vilma showed why you shouldn't run the option in the NFL on any given play, but being willing to do so, and the potential running the option and having to defend it does open up things.
Okay... enough editorializing... time for a game day pick...
Is san francisco really two touchdowns worse than the colts? Hmmm, almost want to pounce on that game.
Tn hasn't won a game and is favored by 3? WTF? Jacksonville has to be a gimme right? Or I don't know something.
Ignorance is bliss. Give me Jacksonville.
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I went back and watched the replay of the personal foul call on AU on the first drive and it was absolutely the right call. The AU player took two steps after the ball was dropped and then lit the LSU receiver up, he did not leave his feet prior to the ball being dropped. I hate to see a good game impacted by a call like that but I put that on the AU DB not the refs.
ReplyDeleteI am not sure I understand your point about the wildcat. The fact is we shut the wildcat down. The reason the Phins were up is we turned the ball over twice inside our own 20 and Porter took an awful angle in allowing Ricky to break that long run out of the normal formation. Are you saying that the wildcat was effective because we did not know what formation they would be in when they broke the huddle? I still subscribe to the theory that the only reason you run the wildcat is your QB is not good enough to win games for you and if that is the case you will likely not be a consistent winner in the NFL. See Chad Henne.
I was discussing the wildcat, with other Saints fans. The dismissed the offense completely because of the stats vs. the Saints defense. Though it sounds like you somewhat agree with them so I'll be happy to share my thoughts with you.
ReplyDeleteThe point of our debate was they said the wildcat was useless because the Dolphins got most of their postive yardage in other sets. I said you can't just attribute the positive yards in the offense to that formation, it's kind of similar to a pitcher working a batter. Some pitches set up other pitches, if it's all fastballs or hail mary's it's easy to hit/defend.
Or a successful balanced offense will sometimes have a great passing day when a defense is keying on the run. The wildcat is a little more than just a variation of the run, it's almost like a third set at the D. Yes, N.O. stopped the wildcat and probably logged a good amount of time in practice doing that, but they also were out of position in the other sets.
The Miami offense is effective and the wildcat is part of it. I agree you are more tempted to run the wildcat when you got a rookie/raw/bad quarterback like Henne, but I think if you got multiple backs that can contribute and a athlete qb (maybe one day that West Virginia qb can do more for Miami--old miCHAEL Vick would be perfect) you should consider it.
Hell, the Saints could utilize it a bit, and maybe get a little more out of Reggie Bush, same with the Boys with Jones, Choice, and Barber. Neither team would lean on it like Miami or direct an offense around it like Miami but both could use it intermitantly.
And yes, with those teams who might use it a few times maybe you measure its effectiveness by those times. But a team like Miami, where it's a big portion of the offense so much is created by the threat you can't just dimiss it as a weak gimmick if the team is able to move the ball.