"The Bar for Heroism has just been raised"--it'll mean something later, bare with me.
Wrapping up our look at the betting odds for the this years 5teamer pick selections. The only thing better than March Madness is betting on March Madness, why not get started in November right?
Of note, Martin Tyson is a newcomer to the pool, but not to Basketball betting online, but as traditionally happens, he's bringing up the rear. Congrats to Big Daddy, a fellow first-timer, for staying with the middle of the pack, this is often a tough nut to crack in your first year.
Tyson has the dubious honor, I believe, of going the longest before one of his teams picked up their first win in our pool history. Marist actually quickly won another game after the first (winning streak?) and is at two wins. This also means, he may have the additional honor, of the earliest tying of last year's record by a selection, and the earliest surpassing of it, as Marist had just one win last year.
I don't know much about Marist but I do know that their conference (the MAAC) is fairly solid with teams like Iona, and Geoff Perry's pick Fairfield, that Marist won't just plough through that part of their schedule either (even if extremely improved). Why would a guy pick a one win team from last year maybe "Martin Tyson" thought "Marist y nnot"?
This year, nobody, including the two newcomers, took an Ivy League team. Without a conference tournament it takes a special team to make up for those two or three lost win opportunities, as John Price, last year’s newcomer, discovered when he took Harvard.
Interestingly enough last year we had 18 different teams picked and this year it was 28. Not nearly as many commonalities which means more games to pay attention to. UNC was picked by six people, six people that are probably already regretting that selection, Pittsburgh by four people, four people probably relishing that selection, and Florida was picked by 4 people, four people probably not sure about their pick yet or not. Georgia and Arizona, two low cost teams, were picked second most 5 times each. Arizona is looking like a solid pick Memphis was the only other team to be picked by more than two people, selected three times.
In the past, usually groupthink gets you close to the top of the leaderboard. Only Bill P, selected the three most common teams (UNC, Georgia, Arizona), which means he’s really going to rely heavily on Minnesota and Baylor. Incidentally, he shares both those teams with one other player (Melissa for Minnesota, Jessica for Baylor). Eric Johnson’s slate also has a lot of common teams (UNC 6, Georgia 5, Florida 4, Memphis 3, and Illinois 2).
The thing that surprised me about Eric’s slate was picking two teams that will play each other at least twice with Florida and Georgia. He’s shortening his schedule by at least two games, and that’s an unusual selection for a veteran player. Pool leader Stephen is the only other player to have all his selections also picked by other players. Which is good for him, since he already has a lead, and it will be that much tougher for those with mutual teams to catch up to him.
Everybody else, had at least one unique pick in the slates. Martin Tyson picked the least most common slate with four teams selected only by him, and his fifth team Marquette, only selected by Melissa. Geoff Perry had three unique picks (well done on Connecticut, not so well done on Fairfield, and the schedule is tough for Michigan State but they do look like a contender). Geoff Roswick also had four teams picked only by him, but his fifth team North Carolina was picked by more than half the pool.
Also of note the top three, all went under the 100 win allotment. Quirky, but like them, I felt this year the best fits were either slightly over 100 or slightly under. Sometimes it works out that way. Course the season is early and anything can happen, and many years we’ve seen somebody not catch fire until the end of the season. Nobody at this point looks to be out of it, though if I were Geoff Roswick I’d be sending letters to Cal SB and Weber State telling them to get their act together, or at least get Harold "The Show" Arceneaux a New Orleans baller some more years of eligibility.
By the way Kevin Harlan, the original Gus Johnson?
Showing posts with label Sports Betting. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Sports Betting. Show all posts
Tuesday, December 7, 2010
Friday, December 3, 2010
5 Teamer Basketball Betting Update Part 1.
About this time of year, I take over the blog for the CyberLeague 5 Teamer. This blog is about betting so it makes sense to have sports betting/pools be the subject of it in the winter. So, that's what I'm doing today by posting here. (Btw, Blake, your prize for the Lock of the Year championship is an additional piece of me in Saturday's poker tournament at Harrahs. I believe I was rolling over a "comped" percentage from partially backing me last year so now you'll have a bigger stake to sweat. I'll text you updates).
On to the show at hand and the first written analysis of this years 5 teamer. Our best slate so far has been Stephen Gerztoff, and therefore the guy who would seem to show the best Basketball betting prowess--please give us some freebie hoops picks when you get a chance.
Interestingly enough, the top four performers so far this year have yet to send in their checks (Stephen 1st with 35, Rory and Melissa tied for second with 32, and Shoats 4th at 31). Send yo' checks today. Let's not make this the basis for everybody being slow payers in the future.
Anyway Stephen's slate is Arizona, Georgia, Illinois, Missouri, and Pittsburgh. He shares two teams with Bill P, and Geoff P Arizona and Georgia. Arizona is already at 7 wins and the Pac 10 looks suspect again. Good pick. Georgia had a lot of hype and some talent but arguably has underperformed with only 5 wins. The SEC, particularly the East, is borderline loaded so we'll see how Georgia manages in the long run. It could prove to be Stephen’s Achilles heel.
Stephen's other three teams Illinois, Missouri, and Pittsburgh have 8, 6, and 9 wins. Pitt has the most wins of any team in the pool. The Big 12 also looks to be stocked with Texas, KState, Kansas, and Baylor playing at a high level. Missouri had Georgetown on the ropes and basically a miracle robbed them of their 7th win and extending Stephen’s lead on everybody in the pool. Kudos to Stephen for thinking outside the box and dodging UNC.
Personally, as I filled out my pool, I said what if the magazines are wrong about UNC's recovery, I bet I could pick up a lot of wins on everybody cause they look appetizing at 20. I didn't pull the trigger because of fandom and I hoped the freshmen were as good as advertised, which was better than they looked in the All-Star games. Stephen didn't have to worry about being faithful to the baby blues and it's paid off.
The next two players, Rory and Melissa also ducked Carolina. I'm really starting to like Rory's George Mason pick, though I could never pick the Goo Moos, I hope he's enjoying rooting for Coach Lasagna this year. He shares Illinois and Pitt with Stephen, so those two will let UCLA, Florida and George Mason do battle with Arizona, Georgia, and Missouri. If UCLA doesn't get its act together, advantage Stephen. If they do the two Florida-Georgia games should hold a lot interest for them.
I’m pretty sure Rory selected 14 win UCLA over 14 win Georgia based on the paucity of quality teams in the Pac 10. Georgia has more wins now, but the UCLA pick is definitely back-loaded which helps considering they have a young, but talented team, that might figure out what they are doing when they enter the easiest part of their season which is their conference play. Georgia season conversely gets harder, but they are a veteran team with some all SEC type players so that will be interesting to watch.
Melissa’s slate has the most balance in the pool, her being the only player with every team having at least six wins. At this point that could just be due to scheduling but it is worth keeping an eye on, as everybody else seems to have at least one possible anchor.
On to the show at hand and the first written analysis of this years 5 teamer. Our best slate so far has been Stephen Gerztoff, and therefore the guy who would seem to show the best Basketball betting prowess--please give us some freebie hoops picks when you get a chance.
Interestingly enough, the top four performers so far this year have yet to send in their checks (Stephen 1st with 35, Rory and Melissa tied for second with 32, and Shoats 4th at 31). Send yo' checks today. Let's not make this the basis for everybody being slow payers in the future.
Anyway Stephen's slate is Arizona, Georgia, Illinois, Missouri, and Pittsburgh. He shares two teams with Bill P, and Geoff P Arizona and Georgia. Arizona is already at 7 wins and the Pac 10 looks suspect again. Good pick. Georgia had a lot of hype and some talent but arguably has underperformed with only 5 wins. The SEC, particularly the East, is borderline loaded so we'll see how Georgia manages in the long run. It could prove to be Stephen’s Achilles heel.
Stephen's other three teams Illinois, Missouri, and Pittsburgh have 8, 6, and 9 wins. Pitt has the most wins of any team in the pool. The Big 12 also looks to be stocked with Texas, KState, Kansas, and Baylor playing at a high level. Missouri had Georgetown on the ropes and basically a miracle robbed them of their 7th win and extending Stephen’s lead on everybody in the pool. Kudos to Stephen for thinking outside the box and dodging UNC.
Personally, as I filled out my pool, I said what if the magazines are wrong about UNC's recovery, I bet I could pick up a lot of wins on everybody cause they look appetizing at 20. I didn't pull the trigger because of fandom and I hoped the freshmen were as good as advertised, which was better than they looked in the All-Star games. Stephen didn't have to worry about being faithful to the baby blues and it's paid off.
The next two players, Rory and Melissa also ducked Carolina. I'm really starting to like Rory's George Mason pick, though I could never pick the Goo Moos, I hope he's enjoying rooting for Coach Lasagna this year. He shares Illinois and Pitt with Stephen, so those two will let UCLA, Florida and George Mason do battle with Arizona, Georgia, and Missouri. If UCLA doesn't get its act together, advantage Stephen. If they do the two Florida-Georgia games should hold a lot interest for them.
I’m pretty sure Rory selected 14 win UCLA over 14 win Georgia based on the paucity of quality teams in the Pac 10. Georgia has more wins now, but the UCLA pick is definitely back-loaded which helps considering they have a young, but talented team, that might figure out what they are doing when they enter the easiest part of their season which is their conference play. Georgia season conversely gets harder, but they are a veteran team with some all SEC type players so that will be interesting to watch.
Melissa’s slate has the most balance in the pool, her being the only player with every team having at least six wins. At this point that could just be due to scheduling but it is worth keeping an eye on, as everybody else seems to have at least one possible anchor.
Sunday, April 18, 2010
Five Teamer Sports Betting Winner
We have a winner in our sports betting five teamer college basketball challenge. Congrats to Rory O'Brien.
Rory's slate had a bit of a late season run, though he was never out of it, always just in hailing distance. Luckily for him the Big Pool winner was no other than Redbone himself, Eric Johnson, whose second slate took down the main prize. He did not use that slate in our pool.
Let's take a look at the season in a distant rear-view mirror. As a Duke hater, I'm loathe to pick them, however, at the beginning of the season I thought they were a legitimate national title contender. I thought KU would win but I thought Duke had the horses to get there. They had three major talents, and sometimes major college talents (Reddick, Hansbrough, Laettner, Ferry, Never Nervous Pervis Ellison) is all it takes, though it's easier with NBA guys.
Singler, Scheyer, and Smith don't look like go to NBA guys though they all could get floor time in the big league. However, they are great college players. The entire team was also veteran and dangerous. I opted not to pick them because they were pricey, Duke always is, however, that didn't stop me from taking Kansas and it turns out it shouldn't have stopped me from Duke.
In the past I've veered away from Mid-Major giants no matter how talented they may be because they never seem to have final four or finals potential. Butler was proof that picking them was just as wise as picking any Major. In fact, their easier conference schedule and that they beat some major programs in their loaded non-conference only solidified their strength as a pick. Congrats to the one of us that did pick them Mr. Seven Gersztoff.
Texas was one of our biggest disappointments, if Georgia Tech didn’t have just 12 wins last year, they arguably would be too. They have a lot of talent. Good thing Georgia Tech is cheap and doesn’t want to buy out Paul Hewitt for Paul Hewitt’s sake. Nobody had a terrible, terrible year, sometimes players barely get over the 100 win threshold. Newcomer John Price can hold his head up that even though he came in last he was still 20+ games better than last year.
Will Rory have any NBA basketball
Basketball betting now that college basketball is in our distant mirror? That is the question my friends.
Though transitioning from March Madness to the NBA playoffs is a bit like divorcing Angelina Jolie and marrying Roseanne Bahr. Where is the mystic, the madness, the majesty, the passion, the pageantry, and the poignancy. A theme song to end the night “One Shining Moment,” brings some men to tears. The only thing that brings a fan to tears about the NBA is when they take a ball to the nose from an angry Ron Artest.
So, who does Rory like the Cavs, the Lakers, the Mavs, or the Bulls? Who really cares. Not about Rory’s expertise but about the subject matter. Isn’t the next best thing in sports going to be the World Cup tournament. Surely we’ll do a sports pool focusing on the World Cup and not the NBA playoffs. Besides paint drying, the NHL ice freezing, and just short of Astro Turf growing the NBA playoffs is entertaining.
Also, will this blog be used by our wager makers in the future? I've certainly taken it over with the five teamer madness but I trust the Lock of the Weekers will be back. Lord knows it’s fun to watch somebody on a Schneide and best against them.
Rory's slate had a bit of a late season run, though he was never out of it, always just in hailing distance. Luckily for him the Big Pool winner was no other than Redbone himself, Eric Johnson, whose second slate took down the main prize. He did not use that slate in our pool.
Let's take a look at the season in a distant rear-view mirror. As a Duke hater, I'm loathe to pick them, however, at the beginning of the season I thought they were a legitimate national title contender. I thought KU would win but I thought Duke had the horses to get there. They had three major talents, and sometimes major college talents (Reddick, Hansbrough, Laettner, Ferry, Never Nervous Pervis Ellison) is all it takes, though it's easier with NBA guys.
Singler, Scheyer, and Smith don't look like go to NBA guys though they all could get floor time in the big league. However, they are great college players. The entire team was also veteran and dangerous. I opted not to pick them because they were pricey, Duke always is, however, that didn't stop me from taking Kansas and it turns out it shouldn't have stopped me from Duke.
In the past I've veered away from Mid-Major giants no matter how talented they may be because they never seem to have final four or finals potential. Butler was proof that picking them was just as wise as picking any Major. In fact, their easier conference schedule and that they beat some major programs in their loaded non-conference only solidified their strength as a pick. Congrats to the one of us that did pick them Mr. Seven Gersztoff.
Texas was one of our biggest disappointments, if Georgia Tech didn’t have just 12 wins last year, they arguably would be too. They have a lot of talent. Good thing Georgia Tech is cheap and doesn’t want to buy out Paul Hewitt for Paul Hewitt’s sake. Nobody had a terrible, terrible year, sometimes players barely get over the 100 win threshold. Newcomer John Price can hold his head up that even though he came in last he was still 20+ games better than last year.
Will Rory have any NBA basketball
Basketball betting now that college basketball is in our distant mirror? That is the question my friends.
Though transitioning from March Madness to the NBA playoffs is a bit like divorcing Angelina Jolie and marrying Roseanne Bahr. Where is the mystic, the madness, the majesty, the passion, the pageantry, and the poignancy. A theme song to end the night “One Shining Moment,” brings some men to tears. The only thing that brings a fan to tears about the NBA is when they take a ball to the nose from an angry Ron Artest.
So, who does Rory like the Cavs, the Lakers, the Mavs, or the Bulls? Who really cares. Not about Rory’s expertise but about the subject matter. Isn’t the next best thing in sports going to be the World Cup tournament. Surely we’ll do a sports pool focusing on the World Cup and not the NBA playoffs. Besides paint drying, the NHL ice freezing, and just short of Astro Turf growing the NBA playoffs is entertaining.
Also, will this blog be used by our wager makers in the future? I've certainly taken it over with the five teamer madness but I trust the Lock of the Weekers will be back. Lord knows it’s fun to watch somebody on a Schneide and best against them.
Tuesday, January 5, 2010
5 Teamer Hoops Pool
The 5 Teamer isn't exactly sports betting but it's not far off. This blog is essentially devoted to sports betting so this is as good as place as any to put the updates. So here you go.
Anyway, ya'll know the rules pick 5 teams whose win total from last year can't exceed 100. The slate with the most wins this year wins. I haven't done my customary analysis and prognostications but now they conference play is almost here I feel it's a good time.
Here's the Leaderboard:
Playas W L Rank
Andrew Bird 64 4 2
Bill Phillips 61 6 6
Chris Brancati 64 2 2
David Bourg 64 4 2
Eric Johnson 65 5 1
Geoff Perry 55 13 10
Geoff Roswick 63 8 5
John Price 56 14 8
Steve Gersztoff 56 12 8
Rory O'Brien 61 5 6
Number 1 you'll see is Eric Johnson he's probably made the best sports bets of anybody. His slate is:
Eric Johnson LY W L
Kansas 27 13 0
Kentucky 22 15 0
Texas 23 14 0
Georgia Tech 12 11 3
Ole Miss 16 12 2
100 65 5
Kansas was picked by every single player in the pool which was the safe bet. Therefore this years 5 teamer works like a 4 teamer. Kentucky was picked by all but Steve Gersztoff (everybody is betting on the favorites). Their 15-0 record and a slightly weak SEC East probably has Steve wondering if he could do it over again. Texas was interesting as it was picked by 6 out of 10 players. Three players had the exact same slate (Kansas, Kentucky, Texas, Georgetown and Georgia Tech) and they all got it right by selecting Texas.
I would be stunned if anybody without Texas wins this pool. West Virginia was the same price (23 wins) and two players myself, and Rory took the 'eers instead of the longhorns. I'm embarrassed to say I thought Damion James left last year and didn't want to rely on so young a team that would have some freshmen as its best players. With all the hype Wall is getting at Kentucky there are a couple of Longhorns that are getting overlooked and are truly impact freshmen.
Texas will win a lot of games and lose few. They also play in the big 12 which is arguably a much easier road to hoe than the big east this year. Us Mountaineer "fans" better hope for a truly magical conference season but I suspect it won't happen.
Back to Eric Johnson's slate his fourth team is Georgia Tech which six players own. I view GA Tech as a suspect pick and selected Charlotte instead. Well, GA Tech is supect but Charlotte is probably more suspect. The A10 is loaded this year with 4 or 5 teams competing for at large spots and while Charlotte is good they are probably the least of the best. In the ACC, Georgia Tech is probably the third or fourth best team. Despite a loss to in-state rival, Georgia Tech will have a better chance to win more games than Charlotte.
His fifth team was Ole Miss, which I was the only other player to pick. I loved this pick in the preseason. I still like it. Miss St is good but I think teams like Ole Miss improved moreso than Miss St and they can win the SEC West with Bama, Auburn, LSU, and Arkansas all relatively down. Georgetown like Ole Miss also had 16 wins and many probably considered one or the other. And I'm not sure here if Eric made the right decision. The Big East is loaded but Georgetown is really firing on all cylinders. Sure they dropped one at home to ODU but that's a good mid-major team (that beat them at Georgetown in their recent final four year too--I think).
There are several rules I look to win doing this pool and one of them is to have as few of my teams play each other. Therefore I don't like conference mates. Eric's Ole Miss team definitely plays Kentucky once this year and might play them twice. As it's a split conference it's not as egregious a strategy flaw but it's still a mistake. Upside he'll get a least one win when they play, downside is he loses an opportunity for two wins.
The triumvirate is 2nd with the same slate as Eric (except for Georgetown over Ole Miss). Thus, I make them the favorites to win our pool. Odd, because the slate that jumped out of the magazine when I set about to do this was the five they chose. I wanted to be a little different but variation for variation's sake was a bad strategy. The best 5 is probably the most obvious.
Geoff Roswick is just behind with the same foursome but instead of Ole Miss or Georgetown he went with Denver. Denver got beaten up a little bit in noncon but if they can pull a Gonzaga on their conference, Roswick might be able to make up the difference. They'll hurt him in March but but if he can somehow get four games up on Gtown or Ole Miss he could win it (he's down two so that's at minimum a six game swing that'll he'll need to win so could be tough).
Anyway, ya'll know the rules pick 5 teams whose win total from last year can't exceed 100. The slate with the most wins this year wins. I haven't done my customary analysis and prognostications but now they conference play is almost here I feel it's a good time.
Here's the Leaderboard:
Playas W L Rank
Andrew Bird 64 4 2
Bill Phillips 61 6 6
Chris Brancati 64 2 2
David Bourg 64 4 2
Eric Johnson 65 5 1
Geoff Perry 55 13 10
Geoff Roswick 63 8 5
John Price 56 14 8
Steve Gersztoff 56 12 8
Rory O'Brien 61 5 6
Number 1 you'll see is Eric Johnson he's probably made the best sports bets of anybody. His slate is:
Eric Johnson LY W L
Kansas 27 13 0
Kentucky 22 15 0
Texas 23 14 0
Georgia Tech 12 11 3
Ole Miss 16 12 2
100 65 5
Kansas was picked by every single player in the pool which was the safe bet. Therefore this years 5 teamer works like a 4 teamer. Kentucky was picked by all but Steve Gersztoff (everybody is betting on the favorites). Their 15-0 record and a slightly weak SEC East probably has Steve wondering if he could do it over again. Texas was interesting as it was picked by 6 out of 10 players. Three players had the exact same slate (Kansas, Kentucky, Texas, Georgetown and Georgia Tech) and they all got it right by selecting Texas.
I would be stunned if anybody without Texas wins this pool. West Virginia was the same price (23 wins) and two players myself, and Rory took the 'eers instead of the longhorns. I'm embarrassed to say I thought Damion James left last year and didn't want to rely on so young a team that would have some freshmen as its best players. With all the hype Wall is getting at Kentucky there are a couple of Longhorns that are getting overlooked and are truly impact freshmen.
Texas will win a lot of games and lose few. They also play in the big 12 which is arguably a much easier road to hoe than the big east this year. Us Mountaineer "fans" better hope for a truly magical conference season but I suspect it won't happen.
Back to Eric Johnson's slate his fourth team is Georgia Tech which six players own. I view GA Tech as a suspect pick and selected Charlotte instead. Well, GA Tech is supect but Charlotte is probably more suspect. The A10 is loaded this year with 4 or 5 teams competing for at large spots and while Charlotte is good they are probably the least of the best. In the ACC, Georgia Tech is probably the third or fourth best team. Despite a loss to in-state rival, Georgia Tech will have a better chance to win more games than Charlotte.
His fifth team was Ole Miss, which I was the only other player to pick. I loved this pick in the preseason. I still like it. Miss St is good but I think teams like Ole Miss improved moreso than Miss St and they can win the SEC West with Bama, Auburn, LSU, and Arkansas all relatively down. Georgetown like Ole Miss also had 16 wins and many probably considered one or the other. And I'm not sure here if Eric made the right decision. The Big East is loaded but Georgetown is really firing on all cylinders. Sure they dropped one at home to ODU but that's a good mid-major team (that beat them at Georgetown in their recent final four year too--I think).
There are several rules I look to win doing this pool and one of them is to have as few of my teams play each other. Therefore I don't like conference mates. Eric's Ole Miss team definitely plays Kentucky once this year and might play them twice. As it's a split conference it's not as egregious a strategy flaw but it's still a mistake. Upside he'll get a least one win when they play, downside is he loses an opportunity for two wins.
The triumvirate is 2nd with the same slate as Eric (except for Georgetown over Ole Miss). Thus, I make them the favorites to win our pool. Odd, because the slate that jumped out of the magazine when I set about to do this was the five they chose. I wanted to be a little different but variation for variation's sake was a bad strategy. The best 5 is probably the most obvious.
Geoff Roswick is just behind with the same foursome but instead of Ole Miss or Georgetown he went with Denver. Denver got beaten up a little bit in noncon but if they can pull a Gonzaga on their conference, Roswick might be able to make up the difference. They'll hurt him in March but but if he can somehow get four games up on Gtown or Ole Miss he could win it (he's down two so that's at minimum a six game swing that'll he'll need to win so could be tough).
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