I'm riding these guys until they throw me off. The Jags are hot - red hot. Look for the Raiders to get a healthy dose of MJD and for the Jags to cruise to an easy victory.
Add in there the West Coast team coming East and you got yourself a healthy LOW.
To quote a former participant, just bang this and thank me later.
PTL
Sunday, December 12, 2010
Tuesday, December 7, 2010
5 Teamer Basketball Betting Update Part 2.
"The Bar for Heroism has just been raised"--it'll mean something later, bare with me.
Wrapping up our look at the betting odds for the this years 5teamer pick selections. The only thing better than March Madness is betting on March Madness, why not get started in November right?
Of note, Martin Tyson is a newcomer to the pool, but not to Basketball betting online, but as traditionally happens, he's bringing up the rear. Congrats to Big Daddy, a fellow first-timer, for staying with the middle of the pack, this is often a tough nut to crack in your first year.
Tyson has the dubious honor, I believe, of going the longest before one of his teams picked up their first win in our pool history. Marist actually quickly won another game after the first (winning streak?) and is at two wins. This also means, he may have the additional honor, of the earliest tying of last year's record by a selection, and the earliest surpassing of it, as Marist had just one win last year.
I don't know much about Marist but I do know that their conference (the MAAC) is fairly solid with teams like Iona, and Geoff Perry's pick Fairfield, that Marist won't just plough through that part of their schedule either (even if extremely improved). Why would a guy pick a one win team from last year maybe "Martin Tyson" thought "Marist y nnot"?
This year, nobody, including the two newcomers, took an Ivy League team. Without a conference tournament it takes a special team to make up for those two or three lost win opportunities, as John Price, last year’s newcomer, discovered when he took Harvard.
Interestingly enough last year we had 18 different teams picked and this year it was 28. Not nearly as many commonalities which means more games to pay attention to. UNC was picked by six people, six people that are probably already regretting that selection, Pittsburgh by four people, four people probably relishing that selection, and Florida was picked by 4 people, four people probably not sure about their pick yet or not. Georgia and Arizona, two low cost teams, were picked second most 5 times each. Arizona is looking like a solid pick Memphis was the only other team to be picked by more than two people, selected three times.
In the past, usually groupthink gets you close to the top of the leaderboard. Only Bill P, selected the three most common teams (UNC, Georgia, Arizona), which means he’s really going to rely heavily on Minnesota and Baylor. Incidentally, he shares both those teams with one other player (Melissa for Minnesota, Jessica for Baylor). Eric Johnson’s slate also has a lot of common teams (UNC 6, Georgia 5, Florida 4, Memphis 3, and Illinois 2).
The thing that surprised me about Eric’s slate was picking two teams that will play each other at least twice with Florida and Georgia. He’s shortening his schedule by at least two games, and that’s an unusual selection for a veteran player. Pool leader Stephen is the only other player to have all his selections also picked by other players. Which is good for him, since he already has a lead, and it will be that much tougher for those with mutual teams to catch up to him.
Everybody else, had at least one unique pick in the slates. Martin Tyson picked the least most common slate with four teams selected only by him, and his fifth team Marquette, only selected by Melissa. Geoff Perry had three unique picks (well done on Connecticut, not so well done on Fairfield, and the schedule is tough for Michigan State but they do look like a contender). Geoff Roswick also had four teams picked only by him, but his fifth team North Carolina was picked by more than half the pool.
Also of note the top three, all went under the 100 win allotment. Quirky, but like them, I felt this year the best fits were either slightly over 100 or slightly under. Sometimes it works out that way. Course the season is early and anything can happen, and many years we’ve seen somebody not catch fire until the end of the season. Nobody at this point looks to be out of it, though if I were Geoff Roswick I’d be sending letters to Cal SB and Weber State telling them to get their act together, or at least get Harold "The Show" Arceneaux a New Orleans baller some more years of eligibility.
By the way Kevin Harlan, the original Gus Johnson?
Wrapping up our look at the betting odds for the this years 5teamer pick selections. The only thing better than March Madness is betting on March Madness, why not get started in November right?
Of note, Martin Tyson is a newcomer to the pool, but not to Basketball betting online, but as traditionally happens, he's bringing up the rear. Congrats to Big Daddy, a fellow first-timer, for staying with the middle of the pack, this is often a tough nut to crack in your first year.
Tyson has the dubious honor, I believe, of going the longest before one of his teams picked up their first win in our pool history. Marist actually quickly won another game after the first (winning streak?) and is at two wins. This also means, he may have the additional honor, of the earliest tying of last year's record by a selection, and the earliest surpassing of it, as Marist had just one win last year.
I don't know much about Marist but I do know that their conference (the MAAC) is fairly solid with teams like Iona, and Geoff Perry's pick Fairfield, that Marist won't just plough through that part of their schedule either (even if extremely improved). Why would a guy pick a one win team from last year maybe "Martin Tyson" thought "Marist y nnot"?
This year, nobody, including the two newcomers, took an Ivy League team. Without a conference tournament it takes a special team to make up for those two or three lost win opportunities, as John Price, last year’s newcomer, discovered when he took Harvard.
Interestingly enough last year we had 18 different teams picked and this year it was 28. Not nearly as many commonalities which means more games to pay attention to. UNC was picked by six people, six people that are probably already regretting that selection, Pittsburgh by four people, four people probably relishing that selection, and Florida was picked by 4 people, four people probably not sure about their pick yet or not. Georgia and Arizona, two low cost teams, were picked second most 5 times each. Arizona is looking like a solid pick Memphis was the only other team to be picked by more than two people, selected three times.
In the past, usually groupthink gets you close to the top of the leaderboard. Only Bill P, selected the three most common teams (UNC, Georgia, Arizona), which means he’s really going to rely heavily on Minnesota and Baylor. Incidentally, he shares both those teams with one other player (Melissa for Minnesota, Jessica for Baylor). Eric Johnson’s slate also has a lot of common teams (UNC 6, Georgia 5, Florida 4, Memphis 3, and Illinois 2).
The thing that surprised me about Eric’s slate was picking two teams that will play each other at least twice with Florida and Georgia. He’s shortening his schedule by at least two games, and that’s an unusual selection for a veteran player. Pool leader Stephen is the only other player to have all his selections also picked by other players. Which is good for him, since he already has a lead, and it will be that much tougher for those with mutual teams to catch up to him.
Everybody else, had at least one unique pick in the slates. Martin Tyson picked the least most common slate with four teams selected only by him, and his fifth team Marquette, only selected by Melissa. Geoff Perry had three unique picks (well done on Connecticut, not so well done on Fairfield, and the schedule is tough for Michigan State but they do look like a contender). Geoff Roswick also had four teams picked only by him, but his fifth team North Carolina was picked by more than half the pool.
Also of note the top three, all went under the 100 win allotment. Quirky, but like them, I felt this year the best fits were either slightly over 100 or slightly under. Sometimes it works out that way. Course the season is early and anything can happen, and many years we’ve seen somebody not catch fire until the end of the season. Nobody at this point looks to be out of it, though if I were Geoff Roswick I’d be sending letters to Cal SB and Weber State telling them to get their act together, or at least get Harold "The Show" Arceneaux a New Orleans baller some more years of eligibility.
By the way Kevin Harlan, the original Gus Johnson?
Sunday, December 5, 2010
Rams -3.5 @ Arizona
Don't get upset with me Derek Anderson. Just calling it how I see it. Since nobody else is participating, I am owning the Cyber League and now going deep into my vault. Let's roll with the rookie QB and Rams in this crappy NFC West show down versus the Super Bowl runner ups (is this even a shadow of that team?).
Bonus pick: Saints -7. They are on the road. It is cold. Cincy sucks. I'd pick the Bears too but I think they are really "paper tigers".
Final bonus pick: Jags +3. Titans are at home but that team is a mess! Jags seem to be getting something going late here and need this game. Look for them to win on the road.
If the Lion picks and nobody notices, does it still count?
PTL
Bonus pick: Saints -7. They are on the road. It is cold. Cincy sucks. I'd pick the Bears too but I think they are really "paper tigers".
Final bonus pick: Jags +3. Titans are at home but that team is a mess! Jags seem to be getting something going late here and need this game. Look for them to win on the road.
If the Lion picks and nobody notices, does it still count?
PTL
Friday, December 3, 2010
5 Teamer Basketball Betting Update Part 1.
About this time of year, I take over the blog for the CyberLeague 5 Teamer. This blog is about betting so it makes sense to have sports betting/pools be the subject of it in the winter. So, that's what I'm doing today by posting here. (Btw, Blake, your prize for the Lock of the Year championship is an additional piece of me in Saturday's poker tournament at Harrahs. I believe I was rolling over a "comped" percentage from partially backing me last year so now you'll have a bigger stake to sweat. I'll text you updates).
On to the show at hand and the first written analysis of this years 5 teamer. Our best slate so far has been Stephen Gerztoff, and therefore the guy who would seem to show the best Basketball betting prowess--please give us some freebie hoops picks when you get a chance.
Interestingly enough, the top four performers so far this year have yet to send in their checks (Stephen 1st with 35, Rory and Melissa tied for second with 32, and Shoats 4th at 31). Send yo' checks today. Let's not make this the basis for everybody being slow payers in the future.
Anyway Stephen's slate is Arizona, Georgia, Illinois, Missouri, and Pittsburgh. He shares two teams with Bill P, and Geoff P Arizona and Georgia. Arizona is already at 7 wins and the Pac 10 looks suspect again. Good pick. Georgia had a lot of hype and some talent but arguably has underperformed with only 5 wins. The SEC, particularly the East, is borderline loaded so we'll see how Georgia manages in the long run. It could prove to be Stephen’s Achilles heel.
Stephen's other three teams Illinois, Missouri, and Pittsburgh have 8, 6, and 9 wins. Pitt has the most wins of any team in the pool. The Big 12 also looks to be stocked with Texas, KState, Kansas, and Baylor playing at a high level. Missouri had Georgetown on the ropes and basically a miracle robbed them of their 7th win and extending Stephen’s lead on everybody in the pool. Kudos to Stephen for thinking outside the box and dodging UNC.
Personally, as I filled out my pool, I said what if the magazines are wrong about UNC's recovery, I bet I could pick up a lot of wins on everybody cause they look appetizing at 20. I didn't pull the trigger because of fandom and I hoped the freshmen were as good as advertised, which was better than they looked in the All-Star games. Stephen didn't have to worry about being faithful to the baby blues and it's paid off.
The next two players, Rory and Melissa also ducked Carolina. I'm really starting to like Rory's George Mason pick, though I could never pick the Goo Moos, I hope he's enjoying rooting for Coach Lasagna this year. He shares Illinois and Pitt with Stephen, so those two will let UCLA, Florida and George Mason do battle with Arizona, Georgia, and Missouri. If UCLA doesn't get its act together, advantage Stephen. If they do the two Florida-Georgia games should hold a lot interest for them.
I’m pretty sure Rory selected 14 win UCLA over 14 win Georgia based on the paucity of quality teams in the Pac 10. Georgia has more wins now, but the UCLA pick is definitely back-loaded which helps considering they have a young, but talented team, that might figure out what they are doing when they enter the easiest part of their season which is their conference play. Georgia season conversely gets harder, but they are a veteran team with some all SEC type players so that will be interesting to watch.
Melissa’s slate has the most balance in the pool, her being the only player with every team having at least six wins. At this point that could just be due to scheduling but it is worth keeping an eye on, as everybody else seems to have at least one possible anchor.
On to the show at hand and the first written analysis of this years 5 teamer. Our best slate so far has been Stephen Gerztoff, and therefore the guy who would seem to show the best Basketball betting prowess--please give us some freebie hoops picks when you get a chance.
Interestingly enough, the top four performers so far this year have yet to send in their checks (Stephen 1st with 35, Rory and Melissa tied for second with 32, and Shoats 4th at 31). Send yo' checks today. Let's not make this the basis for everybody being slow payers in the future.
Anyway Stephen's slate is Arizona, Georgia, Illinois, Missouri, and Pittsburgh. He shares two teams with Bill P, and Geoff P Arizona and Georgia. Arizona is already at 7 wins and the Pac 10 looks suspect again. Good pick. Georgia had a lot of hype and some talent but arguably has underperformed with only 5 wins. The SEC, particularly the East, is borderline loaded so we'll see how Georgia manages in the long run. It could prove to be Stephen’s Achilles heel.
Stephen's other three teams Illinois, Missouri, and Pittsburgh have 8, 6, and 9 wins. Pitt has the most wins of any team in the pool. The Big 12 also looks to be stocked with Texas, KState, Kansas, and Baylor playing at a high level. Missouri had Georgetown on the ropes and basically a miracle robbed them of their 7th win and extending Stephen’s lead on everybody in the pool. Kudos to Stephen for thinking outside the box and dodging UNC.
Personally, as I filled out my pool, I said what if the magazines are wrong about UNC's recovery, I bet I could pick up a lot of wins on everybody cause they look appetizing at 20. I didn't pull the trigger because of fandom and I hoped the freshmen were as good as advertised, which was better than they looked in the All-Star games. Stephen didn't have to worry about being faithful to the baby blues and it's paid off.
The next two players, Rory and Melissa also ducked Carolina. I'm really starting to like Rory's George Mason pick, though I could never pick the Goo Moos, I hope he's enjoying rooting for Coach Lasagna this year. He shares Illinois and Pitt with Stephen, so those two will let UCLA, Florida and George Mason do battle with Arizona, Georgia, and Missouri. If UCLA doesn't get its act together, advantage Stephen. If they do the two Florida-Georgia games should hold a lot interest for them.
I’m pretty sure Rory selected 14 win UCLA over 14 win Georgia based on the paucity of quality teams in the Pac 10. Georgia has more wins now, but the UCLA pick is definitely back-loaded which helps considering they have a young, but talented team, that might figure out what they are doing when they enter the easiest part of their season which is their conference play. Georgia season conversely gets harder, but they are a veteran team with some all SEC type players so that will be interesting to watch.
Melissa’s slate has the most balance in the pool, her being the only player with every team having at least six wins. At this point that could just be due to scheduling but it is worth keeping an eye on, as everybody else seems to have at least one possible anchor.
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