What are the Standings?

Just curious... I've been on a bit of heater and wondered if that brought me back to .500 and that's probably good enough to be Ker-rushing this piss poor league of game selectors. Today, I'm anxious about the United States inevitably drawing the group of death in the World Cup Selection show. I set my Tivo to record it and it's like three hours long. Since when did a powerball show last more than a commercial.

This will probably make CBS annual bore me to tears selection show look riveting. Fortunately for me in terms of picking you guys are the exact opposite of the group of death. If we were doing eliminations or some sort of monetary prize you might as well replace ya'lls name with the word bye.

This week I didn't look at the games and have one jump out at me. That's not true a couple of days ago I did, and now I don't. I've contemplated banging the Saints but in most years this game is the perfect recipe for a let-down game. I don't know how many times I've said that about the Saints this year, trap game, let-down game, looking ahead on the schedule game, and they always seem resilient.

Still, I'm scared because DC has played well of late and play solid, solid defense. I don't think they can score enough offensively to stay in the game but if Brees and company think they have a cake walk ahead of them, it's a bad bet. However, you got to figure there is value in taking the Saints -10. Play that game 100 times and you have to figure most outcomes have them winning by two touchdowns or more.

Maybe I will pick the Saints.

Where's Aaron Rogers when I need him? Green Baby have a bye this week (like me every week).

Miami... I kind of like them to win outright. They are a dog at home to New England? Value in betting Miami too. Again play that game 100 times and you have to think Miami covers the 4 points more times than they don't. New England has yet to win a road game and are also coming off a Monday night tilt.

How many winners can one guy dole out in a week? Here's another one Minnesota -3 at Arizona. Arizona hasn't won a big game all year at home. That's not going to change when the explosive Vikings hit town. All Day Adrian Petereson runs roughshod over the Cardinals like it's the old NFC East again. Neil Lomax where are ya? Oh, is that you in Matt Linert's uniform.

Incidentally, there are two things you guys need to be reading. One, this interesting blog about handicapping NFL games and the element of luck in the NFL. It's actually quite fascinating. And this other guy's blog applying that to poker (scroll down it's a multi-parter). Put into context it really justifies why there are no "locks" even in skill games.

It's also fascinating to see the distribution of records in the NFL if games were decided only by luck--and how not too far different it would look than the league today.

But who am I going to pick this week?

None of the college games jump out at me besides WVA Rutgers and that's glowing like a cartoon toe that just had an anvil dropped on it. Something must be amiss with Rutgers a favorite in that one. I like West Virgina to win by a touchdown or more. I kind of like the 6 points one of the online sites is giving Alabama, but Auburn proved just how vulnerable that team is, so I'll avoid that game. It could get ugly fast, and I have no idea how good Florida really is.

Hmmm...

I guess that limits my picks to the Aints (again), Miami, or Minnesota. Two are road games, don't like that. Miami is a home underdog... like that. Ah, screw it I'm taking the Saints.