Monday, April 11, 2011

2011 Five Teamer Wrap-Up

Our winner is Big Daddy Spick. I've since learned Big Daddy's real name is Paul Pachuta. Congrats Paul! As a result of a slight mix-up in his emal address Paul never got any updates or spreadsheets to track how he did in the pool until he won. So as surprising as his comeback was for us, it was probably more so for him. Our worst player is Martin Tyson who gets the booby prize of getting his entry back. I think next year, if the last place player doesn't get over 100 points, his $25 will go to second place. Martin Tyson stalled on 99, and he joins a very small list of players to not recoup their 100 win investment. Martin is an online poker player so I'm sure he'll readjust his strategy next year. It took a while for UNC to become the team many of us thought they were going to be but it up ended up being an important part of Paul's winning formula. Paul also scored with Arizona and Florida. Geoff Perry had a solid performance to close out the season in 2nd. He tied with Rory, but as he had the eventual national champion, a 14 game improver, I think we got to give him the tiebreaker. They both win. Nothing. So who really cares who was second and who was third. As usual the worst picker was a newcomer; Martin Tyson. As much as being new to the pool is a good excuse, considering another newbie took the whole thing down, we may have to reevaluate. Tyson had the 2nd worst pick on the board taking 18 win Loyola Marymount who only won 11 games. If he had picked UCONN, instead he would have finished in the middle of the pack at 120. Of note, had Paul Pachuta picked UCONN over Creighton his victory margin, 9 games, would have been an even more crushing 18 games. Baylor was the worst pick, winning 10 fewer games this year, than last. Me and my wife loved them to our detriment. Wonder who influenced her opinion? Michigan State and K-State were also bad selections this year.

Tuesday, February 22, 2011

New Leader in the clubhouse

Is he in the clubhouse? I guess not... but let's go with it. Rory has caught and passed Stephen Gerztoff. Team Ro-Ro has been carried to the finish line by the stand-out play of George Mason and UCLA. While the CAA may get three bids this year, GMU has been tearing that conference up like the University of Richmond used to do. UCLA plays in the Pac 10, which may get two bids this year... ugh... and has been basically enjoying being slighty better than the little sisters of the poor.

College basketball is sometimes like poker in that you don't even have to be a good poker player to make money, you just have to be better than everybody else in the game. UCLA, with the exception of Arizona, is just better than the Pac 10. I don't think anybody is banking on them winning too many games in the NCAAs but the conference season is a lot longer than the tournament.

Steve and Rory share Pittsburgh and Illinois. Pitt despite winning 25 games last year is only one win away from tieing that mark. Illinois has faltered of late in the arduous big 10 and looks to be the anchor of both players slates. Stephen's combo of Arizona/Georgia is right there with Rory's selection of UCLA/Mason. With Arizona a little bit than UCLA and Mason a little better than Georgia.

Which means the pool may be decided by how well Stephen's Mizzou does against Ro-ro's Florida. Personally, I like Rory as Florida should have an easier conference tournament and a higher NCAA seed.

Meanwhile, Big Daddy has also emerged as a viable contender. He's is the third player to cross the magical 100 win mark and like Rory and Stephen is all profit from here on out. BD's first year in the pool has been significant. He has three teams than neither Rory or Stephen has so his focus will be on Memphis regrouping, Creighton getting hot, and North Carolina emerging as a high seed in a weaker ACC.

Behind Big Daddy is Georff Perry who is two wins short of 100. He shares no teams with Rory and two with Gerztoff, and only one with Big Daddy. Fairfield, Conneticutt, and Michigan State are all his own. Perhaps the best possible scenario for Perry would be for Conneticutt to catch Pitt in the Big East, Fairfield to keep winning (they could get to almost 30 this year), and for Michigan State to head to the N.I.T. and go deep.

Izzo is a master of tournament performance, though his team with a low seed in the NCAAs would have a battle every game. They likely would be the class of the second tier tournament. Wonder if he'd have too much pride to play in the N.I.T.

On the other side of things, Martin Tyson has his work to do just to reach 100. It's been some time since a player fell short of "profiting" from one year to the next. With two teams 10 wins shy, and one 6 wins shy it'll be an uphill climb.

The rest of us? We are a whole bunch of mediocre.

Monday, February 7, 2011

What a Long Time it's been...

Maybe it has been since before Christmas since the last update. Taking a break from updating my poker news website I'm finally posting on this blog again. BTW, speaking of poker, Blake took a piece of me in a tournament last year, and won the Lock of the Week prize which was 5% of me in another tournament. Anyway, dude won $50 as I cashed in that event. So congrats to him.

Not that he's in this pool... but I will be selling pieces of myself again in the Spring Break event at the Beau Rivage this year again. I'll pick one tournament and try to sell most of myself. Let me know if you want a piece. On to our regularly schedule program...

Anyway, the spreadsheet shows Pitt still has the most wins of any team in the pool (helped by their win on Monday night which I think already hit ESPN standings... wins after I did the update won't count. Wah, wah). Marist still has the least amount. Marist also got a 1/4 of its wins since the last update. That would be 1.

Some trends to notice from the delay in updating. Newcomer Big Daddy Spickard (who is not Rory's father in law) is pushing the vets and has slotted into third place behind Stephen Gerztoff and Rory Obrien. Rory is only one win behind Stephen. Rory's success is partly due to George Mason who had the most wins since the last update: 9.

Rory loves him some Goo Moos in a down CAA. Rory's eating his Mac and Cheese with a tall glass of shut up juice as he cheers for the Green and Gold. George Mason is also the team with the highest win total from last year to already have surpassed it. 17 to 19.

Fairfield's decimation of thier league (8 wins since last update) has enable Geoff Perry to get in contention. Perry is running fourth which is kind of a big deal for him. Fourth is like first to Geoff, at least that's what his mother would say when she'd make a ribbon for his fourth place finish in the sack race despite there being four entrants. Considering more than four are playing this unchartered waters.

The Pac 10 is down. UCLA and Arizona have hit their stride beating up on the cream puffs (AZ 8 wins, UCLA 7 since last update). This is really the part of the pull that changes gears on players. It's a tale of two seasons (three when you count the postseason), as early on some teams like say Illinois look destined for greatness and others mediocrity, such as UCLA, but this year the Big 10 is loaded and the Pac 10 not so much.

As schools like Minnesota (4), Illinois (3), and to a lesser degree Michigan State (3) because they weren't on track in the nonconference, are finding out it's hard to win games in the big 10. Suddenly, without Illinois pacing Stephen others are in contention.

North Carolina, like Duke has won 7 games since last go round, and are enjoying the ease of the ACC. Don't tell that to NC State who have come unglued and only won twice. The Big 12 is beating up on each other like the big 10, with KState finding only four wins, Mizzou 5, Texas 7 (not bad), and Bayl0r 5.

Florida's seven wins contrasted by LSU's two probably indicates in the SEC good teams win and bad teams don'. Only the aforementioned Marist and Loyola Marymount (also 2) won as few games as LSU. UCONN is trying to keep pace with Pitt and 7 wins means they've been strong.

Smaller conference teams that were supposed to have an easier go in conference but haven't include Houston 3, American 4, Cal SB 5, Creighton 5, and Nichols State 5.

6 teams have surpassed last years win total. American is 5 ahead (16 vs. 11), Arizona 4 ahead (20 vs. 16), Marist 3 ahead (4 vs. 1), Georgia 2 ahead (16 vs. 14), UCLA 2 ahead (16 v. 14), GMU 2 ahead (19 v. 16).

Nichols State has broken even 11 and 11, so too UCONN 18 and 18. The team with the most work to do is Michigan State (-15) 13 vs. 28. Then Duke (-14) 21 v. 35, Baylor (-13) 15 v. 28, Kansas State (-13) 16 v. 29.

Whoa... hold up, just discovered an error in my spreadsheet. Pool Rookie Martin Tyson was getting credit for Fairfield's wins instead of Loyola Marymount. Fixing it, that puts him dead last and gives Geoff Roswick a chance to save face. Tyson, has two teams in the single digits in terms of wins--the only two teams in the pool. Ughh.

Course Geoff, though five wins ahead of Martin Tyson, is the only player in the pool without a team with more than 17 wins.

Okay... you guys keep an eye out for any other errors that might be hidden in the spreadsheet. Normally, somebody catches that but normally I update a little more often.

Wednesday, January 5, 2011

Happy Holidays Edition of the 5 Teamer Update

Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays and Bon Chance.

This year we have a guy far in front of the pack and one way in back of it.

Gerztoff, who has yet to pay, (incidentally, if I were to rule out everybody that hasn't paid, I'd be solely in first. It's something I am considering doing even as I type this, less for the winning and more for the shitfit it would stir) is in first place with a whopping 62 wins. The pack is bunched behind him with Rory at 56, Eric at 55 tied with me, Perry, Big Daddy (nice showing in your first year), and Melissa at 54. The laggards are John Price, my wife, and Martin Tyson. The roadkill that's been left for dead is Geoff Roswick. He stands 17 games behind Gerztoff.

When I was updating the spreadsheet it's not a good sign if I haven't done it for a few weeks and I'm only adding one to the win total. Two of Geoff's teams fell into that category. Ugh.

Martin Tyson's pairing of Duke-Marist is still taking shape. Combined the two teams have 17 wins (14 for Duke and 3 for Marist). They cost him 36 wins (35 for Duke and 1 for Marist). People are talking about Duke going undefeated... I don't think they are quite that good but who knows. You could probably make a case for Marist going defeated from here on out (they won't but they'll probably won't break double digits either).

A good comparison would be to match Tyson's pair with say Big Daddy's Arizona and UNC (16 and 20 wins last year) and track them. At this point, UNC (12) and Arizona (10) have 22 wins combined. So, Martin's only five games behind with his gambit. Postseason will either pay him off or bite him in the butt if Duke can ride their way to another conference tournament and national championship. This may be the only year, taking a 35 win team works, as it is possible Duke could go undefeated and gets (?) 40 wins. Let's say Marist creeps up to 10, that would give Martin 50 wins for two teams, +7 for each.

Still, he's got a mountain to overcome as Gerztoff is 12 wins ahead of him. That's tough to make up. To be critical of Gerztoff slate, besides Pittsburgh, he doesn't seem to have too many teams that look like they'll be good for more than two wins in the Big Dance. Georgia, was a front loaded selection, in my opinion. They'll have Kentucky and Florida twice in a loaded SEC.

Georgia is three wins short of their total from last year. They'd be third fastest (and baring 1 win Marist, second fastest) to that total if they don't slow down too much. American should beat them there as they won 11 last year and are at 10. Congrats to Geoff Roswick for that. If the Patriot League is soft, he could recover. I think he was banking on conference play with American, Webber State, and Cal SB so let's see if he can make it respectable.

Sunday, December 12, 2010

Jags -3.5 vs. Just Win Baby

I'm riding these guys until they throw me off. The Jags are hot - red hot. Look for the Raiders to get a healthy dose of MJD and for the Jags to cruise to an easy victory.

Add in there the West Coast team coming East and you got yourself a healthy LOW.

To quote a former participant, just bang this and thank me later.

PTL

Tuesday, December 7, 2010

5 Teamer Basketball Betting Update Part 2.

"The Bar for Heroism has just been raised"--it'll mean something later, bare with me.

Wrapping up our look at the betting odds for the this years 5teamer pick selections. The only thing better than March Madness is betting on March Madness, why not get started in November right?

Of note, Martin Tyson is a newcomer to the pool, but not to Basketball betting online, but as traditionally happens, he's bringing up the rear. Congrats to Big Daddy, a fellow first-timer, for staying with the middle of the pack, this is often a tough nut to crack in your first year.

Tyson has the dubious honor, I believe, of going the longest before one of his teams picked up their first win in our pool history. Marist actually quickly won another game after the first (winning streak?) and is at two wins. This also means, he may have the additional honor, of the earliest tying of last year's record by a selection, and the earliest surpassing of it, as Marist had just one win last year.

I don't know much about Marist but I do know that their conference (the MAAC) is fairly solid with teams like Iona, and Geoff Perry's pick Fairfield, that Marist won't just plough through that part of their schedule either (even if extremely improved). Why would a guy pick a one win team from last year maybe "Martin Tyson" thought "Marist y nnot"?

This year, nobody, including the two newcomers, took an Ivy League team. Without a conference tournament it takes a special team to make up for those two or three lost win opportunities, as John Price, last year’s newcomer, discovered when he took Harvard.

Interestingly enough last year we had 18 different teams picked and this year it was 28. Not nearly as many commonalities which means more games to pay attention to. UNC was picked by six people, six people that are probably already regretting that selection, Pittsburgh by four people, four people probably relishing that selection, and Florida was picked by 4 people, four people probably not sure about their pick yet or not. Georgia and Arizona, two low cost teams, were picked second most 5 times each. Arizona is looking like a solid pick Memphis was the only other team to be picked by more than two people, selected three times.

In the past, usually groupthink gets you close to the top of the leaderboard. Only Bill P, selected the three most common teams (UNC, Georgia, Arizona), which means he’s really going to rely heavily on Minnesota and Baylor. Incidentally, he shares both those teams with one other player (Melissa for Minnesota, Jessica for Baylor). Eric Johnson’s slate also has a lot of common teams (UNC 6, Georgia 5, Florida 4, Memphis 3, and Illinois 2).

The thing that surprised me about Eric’s slate was picking two teams that will play each other at least twice with Florida and Georgia. He’s shortening his schedule by at least two games, and that’s an unusual selection for a veteran player. Pool leader Stephen is the only other player to have all his selections also picked by other players. Which is good for him, since he already has a lead, and it will be that much tougher for those with mutual teams to catch up to him.

Everybody else, had at least one unique pick in the slates. Martin Tyson picked the least most common slate with four teams selected only by him, and his fifth team Marquette, only selected by Melissa. Geoff Perry had three unique picks (well done on Connecticut, not so well done on Fairfield, and the schedule is tough for Michigan State but they do look like a contender). Geoff Roswick also had four teams picked only by him, but his fifth team North Carolina was picked by more than half the pool.

Also of note the top three, all went under the 100 win allotment. Quirky, but like them, I felt this year the best fits were either slightly over 100 or slightly under. Sometimes it works out that way. Course the season is early and anything can happen, and many years we’ve seen somebody not catch fire until the end of the season. Nobody at this point looks to be out of it, though if I were Geoff Roswick I’d be sending letters to Cal SB and Weber State telling them to get their act together, or at least get Harold "The Show" Arceneaux a New Orleans baller some more years of eligibility.



By the way Kevin Harlan, the original Gus Johnson?

Sunday, December 5, 2010

Rams -3.5 @ Arizona

Don't get upset with me Derek Anderson. Just calling it how I see it. Since nobody else is participating, I am owning the Cyber League and now going deep into my vault. Let's roll with the rookie QB and Rams in this crappy NFC West show down versus the Super Bowl runner ups (is this even a shadow of that team?).

Bonus pick: Saints -7. They are on the road. It is cold. Cincy sucks. I'd pick the Bears too but I think they are really "paper tigers".

Final bonus pick: Jags +3. Titans are at home but that team is a mess! Jags seem to be getting something going late here and need this game. Look for them to win on the road.

If the Lion picks and nobody notices, does it still count?

PTL